The Strange Disappearance of Civic America
     by Robert D. Putnam
    Volume 7, Issue 24.   December 1, 1996
                
                 For the last year or so, I have been wrestling with a difficult mystery. It is a classic
                 brainteaser, with a corpus delicti, a crime scene strewn with clues, and many
                 potential suspects. As in all good detective stories, however, some plausible
                 miscreants turn out to have impeccable alibis, and some important clues hint at
                 portentous developments that occurred before the curtain rose.

                 The mystery concerns the strange disappearance of social capital and civic
                 engagement in America. By "social capital," I mean features of social life--networks,
                 norms, and trust--that enable participants to act together more effectively to pursue
                 shared objectives. (Whether or not their shared goals are praiseworthy is, of course,
                 entirely another matter.) I use the term "civic engagement" to refer to people's
                 connections with the life of their communities, not only with politics.

                 Although I am not yet sure that I have solved the mystery, I have assembled
                 evidence that clarifies what happened. An important clue, as we shall see, involves
                 differences among generations. Americans who came of age during the Depression
                 and World War II have been far more deeply engaged in the life of their
                 communities than the generations that have followed them. The passing of this "long
                 civic generation" appears to be an important proximate cause of the decline of our
                 civic life. This discovery does not in itself crack the case, but when combined with
                 other data it points strongly to one suspect against whom I shall presently bring an
                 indictment.

                 Evidence for the decline of social capital and civic engagement comes from a
                 number of independent sources. Surveys of average Americans in 1965, 1975, and
                 1985, in which they recorded every single activity during a day--so-called
                 "time-budget" studies--indicate that since 1965 time spent on informal socializing and
                 visiting is down (perhaps by one-quarter) and time devoted to clubs and
                 organizations is down even more sharply (by roughly half). Membership records of
                 such diverse organizations as the PTA, the Elks club, the League of Women Voters,
                 the Red Cross, labor unions, and even bowling leagues show that participation in
                 many conventional voluntary associations has declined by roughly 25 percent to 50
                 percent over the last two to three decades. Surveys show sharp declines in many
                 measures of collective political participation, including attending a rally or speech (off
                 36 percent between 1973 and 1993), attending a meeting on town or school affairs
                 (off 39 percent), or working for a political party (off 56 percent).

                 Some of the most reliable evidence about trends comes from the General Social
                 Survey (GSS), conducted nearly every year for more than two decades. The GSS
                 demonstrates, at all levels of education and among both men and women, a drop of
                 roughly one-quarter in group membership since 1974 and a drop of roughly
                 one-third in social trust since 1972. (Trust in political authorities, indeed in many
                 social institutions, has also declined sharply over the last three decades, but that is
                 conceptually a distinct trend.) Slumping membership has afflicted all sorts of groups,
                 from sports clubs and professional associations to literary discussion groups and
                 labor unions. Only nationality groups, hobby and garden clubs, and the catch-all
                 category of "other" seem to have resisted the ebbing tide. Gallup polls report that
                 church attendance fell by roughly 15 percent during the 1960s and has remained at
                 that lower level ever since, while data from the National Opinion Research Center
                 suggest that the decline continued during the 1970s and 1980s and by now amounts
                 to roughly 30 percent. A more complete audit of American social capital would
                 need to account for apparent countertrends. Some observers believe, for example,
                 that support groups and neighborhood watch groups are proliferating, and few deny
                 that the last several decades have witnessed explosive growth in interest groups
                 represented in Washington. The growth of such "mailing list" organizations as the
                 American Association of Retired People and the Sierra Club, although highly
                 significant in political (and commercial) terms, is not really a counterexample to the
                 supposed decline in social connectedness, however, since these are not really
                 associations in which members meet one another. Their members' ties are to
                 common symbols and ideologies, but not to each other. Similarly, although most
                 secondary associations are not-for-profit, most prominent nonprofits (from Harvard
                 University to the Ford Foundation to the Metropolitan Opera) are bureaucracies,
                 not secondary associations, so the growth of the "third sector" is not tantamount to a
                 growth in social connectedness. With due regard to various kinds of
                 counterevidence, I believe that the weight of available evidence confirms that
                 Americans today are significantly less engaged with their communities than was true
                 a generation ago.

                 Of course, American civil society is not moribund. Many good people across the
                 land work hard every day to keep their communities vital. Indeed, evidence suggests
                 that America still outranks many other countries in the degree of our community
                 involvement and social trust. But if we examine our lives, not our aspirations, and if
                 we compare ourselves not with other countries but with our parents, the best
                 available evidence suggests that we are less connected with one another.

                 Reversing this trend depends, at least in part, on understanding the causes of the
                 strange malady afflicting American civic life. This is the mystery I seek to unravel
                 here: Why, beginning in the 1960s and accelerating in the 1970s and 1980s, did the
                 fabric of American community life begin to fray? Why are more Americans bowling
                 alone?

                 THE USUAL SUSPECTS

                 Many possible answers have been suggested for this puzzle:

                      busy-ness and time pressure;
                      economic hard times (or, according to alternative theories, material affluence);
                      residential mobility;
                      suburbanization;
                      the movement of women into the paid labor force and the stresses of
                      two-career families;
                      disruption of marriage and family ties;
                      changes in the structure of the American economy, such as the rise of chain
                      stores, branch firms, and the service sector;
                      the sixties (most of which actually happened in the seventies); including
                           Vietnam, Watergate, and disillusion with public life; and
                           the cultural revolt against authority (sex, drugs, and so on);
                      growth of the welfare state;
                      television, the electronic revolution, and other technological changes.

                 The classic questions posed by a detective are means, motive, and opportunity. A
                 solution, even a partial one, to our mystery must pass analogous tests.

                 Is the proposed explanatory factor correlated with trust and civic
                 engagement? If not, that factor probably does not belong in the lineup. For
                 example, if working women turn out to be more engaged in community life than
                 housewives, it would be harder to attribute the downturn in community organizations
                 to the rise of two-career families.

                 Is the correlation spurious? If parents, for example, were more likely than childless
                 people to be joiners, that might be an important clue. However, if the correlation
                 between parental status and civic engagement turned out to be entirely spurious, due
                 to the effects of (say) age, we would have to remove the declining birth rate from
                 our list of suspects.

                 Is the proposed explanatory factor changing in the relevant way? Suppose, for
                 instance, that people who often move have shallower community roots. That could
                 be an important part of the answer to our mystery only if residential mobility itself
                 had risen during this period.

                 Is the proposed explanatory factor vulnerable to the claim that it might be the
                 result of civic disengagement, not the cause? For example, even if newspaper
                 readership were closely correlated with civic engagement across individuals and
                 across time, we would need to weigh the degree to which reduced newspaper
                 circulation is the result (not the cause) of disengagement.

                 Against those benchmarks, let us weigh the evidence. But first we must
                 acknowledge a trend that only complicates our task.

                 EDUCATION DEEPENS THE MYSTERY

                 Education is by far the strongest correlate that I have discovered of civic
                 engagement in all its forms, including social trust and membership in many different
                 types of groups. In fact, the effects of education become greater and greater as we
                 move up the educational ladder. The four years of education between 14 and 18
                 total years have ten times more impact on trust and membership than the first four
                 years of formal education. This curvilinear pattern applies to both men and women,
                 and to all races and generations.

                 Sorting out just why education has such a massive effect on social connectedness
                 would require a book in itself. Education is in part a proxy for social class and
                 economic differences, but when income, social status, and education are used
                 together to predict trust and group membership, education continues to be the
                 primary influence. So, well-educated people are much more likely to be joiners and
                 trusters, partly because they are better off economically, but mostly because of the
                 skills, resources, and inclinations that were imparted to them at home and in school.

                 The expansion of high schools and colleges earlier this century has had an enormous
                 impact on the educational composition of the adult population during just the last two
                 decades. Since 1972 the proportion of adults with fewer than 12 years of education
                 has been cut in half, falling from 40 percent to 18 percent, while the proportion with
                 more than 12 years has nearly doubled, rising from 28 percent to 50 percent, as the
                 generation of Americans educated around the turn of this century (most of whom did
                 not finish high school) died off and were replaced by the baby boomers and their
                 successors (most of whom attended college).

                 So here we have two facts--education boosts civic engagement sharply, and
                 educational levels have risen massively--that only deepen our central mystery. By
                 itself, the rise in educational levels should have increased social capital during the last
                 20 years by 15-20 percent, even assuming that the effects of education were merely
                 linear. (Taking account of the curvilinear effect in figure 1, "Education and Civic
                 Life," the rise in trusting and joining should have been even greater, as Americans
                 moved up the accelerating curve.) By contrast, however, the actual GSS figures
                 show a net decline since the early 1970s of roughly the same magnitude (trust by
                 about 20-25 percent, memberships by about 15-20 percent). The relative declines
                 in social capital are similar within each educational category--roughly 25 percent in
                 group memberships and roughly 30 percent in social trust since the early 1970s, and
                 probably even more since the early 1960s.

                 While this first investigative foray leaves us more mystified than before, we may
                 nevertheless draw two useful conclusions. First, we need to take account of
                 educational differences in our exploration of other factors to be sure that we do not
                 confuse their effects with the consequences of education. And, second, the
                 mysterious disengagement of the last quarter century seems to have afflicted all
                 educational strata in our society, whether they have had graduate education or did
                 not finish high school.
 

                 MOBILITY AND SUBURBANIZATION

                 Many studies have found that residential stability and such related phenomena as
                 homeownership are associated with greater civic engagement. At an earlier stage in
                 this investigation I observed that "mobility, like frequent re-potting of plants, tends to
                 disrupt root systems, and it takes time for an uprooted individual to put down new
                 roots." I must now report, however, that further inquiry fully exonerates residential
                 mobility from any responsibility for our fading civic engagement.

                 Data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995 (and earlier years) show that rates
                 of residential mobility have been remarkably constant over the last half century. In
                 fact, to the extent that there has been any change at all, both long-distance and
                 short-distance mobility have declined over the last five decades. During the 1950s,
                 20 percent of Americans changed residence each year and 6.9 percent annually
                 moved across county borders; during the 1990s, the comparable figures are 17
                 percent and 6.6 percent. Americans, in short, are today slightly more rooted
                 residentially than a generation ago. The verdict on mobility is unequivocal: This
                 theory is simply wrong.

                 But if moving itself has not eroded our social capital, what about the possibility that
                 we have moved to places, especially suburbs, that are less congenial to social
                 connectedness? In fact, social connectedness does differ by community type, but the
                 differences turn out to be modest and in directions that are inconsistent with the
                 theory.

                 Controlling for such characteristics as education, age, income, work status, and
                 race, citizens of the nation's 12 largest metropolitan areas (particularly their central
                 cities, but also their suburbs) are roughly 10 percent less trusting and report 10-20
                 percent fewer group memberships than residents of other cities and towns (and their
                 suburbs). Meanwhile, residents of very small towns and rural areas are (in accord
                 with some hoary stereotypes) slightly more trusting and civicly engaged than other
                 Americans. Unsurprisingly, the prominence of different types of groups does vary
                 significantly by location: Major cities have more political and nationality clubs;
                 smaller cities more fraternal, service, hobby, veterans', and church groups: and rural
                 areas more agricultural organizations. But overall rates of associational membership
                 are not very different.

                 Moreover, this pattern cannot account for our central puzzle. In the first place, there
                 is virtually no correlation between gains in population and losses in social capital,
                 either across states or across localities of different sizes. Even taking into account the
                 educational and social backgrounds of those who have moved there, the suburbs
                 have faintly higher levels of trust and civic engagement than their respective central
                 cities, which should have produced growth, not decay, in social capital over the last
                 generation. The central point, however, is that the downtrends in trusting and joining
                 are virtually identical everywhere--in cities, big and small, in suburbs, in small towns,
                 and in the countryside.

                 Of course, Evanston is not Levittown is not Sun City. The evidence available does
                 not allow us to determine whether different types of suburban living have different
                 effects on civic connections and social trust. However, these data do rule out the
                 thesis that suburbanization per se has caused the erosion of America's social capital.
                 Both where we live and how long we've lived there matter for social capital, but
                 neither explains why it is eroding everywhere.
 
 

                 PRESSURES OF TIME AND MONEY

                 Americans certainly feel busier now than a generation ago: The proportion of us
                 who report feeling "always rushed" jumped by half between the mid-1960s and the
                 mid-1990s. Probably the most obvious suspect behind our tendency to drop out of
                 community affairs is pervasive busy-ness. And lurking nearby in the shadows are
                 economic pressures so much discussed nowadays, from job insecurity to declining
                 real wages.

                 Yet, however culpable busy-ness and economic insecurity may appear at first
                 glance, it is hard to find incriminating evidence. In the first place, time-budget studies
                 do not confirm the thesis that Americans are, on average, working longer than a
                 generation ago. On the contrary, a new study by John Robinson and Geoffrey
                 Godbey of the University of Maryland reports a five hour per week gain in free time
                 for the average American between 1965 and 1985, due partly to reduced time spent
                 on housework and partly to earlier retirement. Their claim that Americans have more
                 leisure time now than several decades ago is, to be sure, contested by other
                 observers, notably Juliet Schor, who in her 1991 book The Overworked American
                 reports evidence that work hours are lengthening, especially for women.
 
 
                 But whatever the resolution of that controversy, other data call into question whether
                longer hours at work lead to lessened involvement in civic life or reduced social
                trust. Results from the GSS show that employed people belong to somewhat more
                groups than those outside the paid labor force. Even more striking is the fact that
                among workers, longer hours are linked to more civic engagement. The patterns
                among men and women on this score are not identical: Women who work part-time
                appear to be somewhat more civicly engaged and socially trusting than either those
                who work full-time or those who do not work outside the home at all--an intriguing
                anomaly, though not relevant to our basic puzzle, since female part-time workers
                constitute a relatively small fraction of the American population, and the fraction is
                growing, up from about 8 percent to about 10 percent between the early 1970s  &  early 1990s.

                 But what do workaholics do less? Robinson reports that, unsurprisingly, people who
                 spend more time at work do feel more rushed, and these harried souls do spend less
                 time eating, sleeping, reading books, engaging in hobbies, and just doing nothing.
                 Compared to the rest of the population, they also spend a lot less time watching
                 television, almost 30 percent less. However, they do not spend less time on
                 organizational activity. In short, those who work longer forego Nightline, but not the
                 Kiwanis club; ER, but not the Red Cross.

                 So hard work does not prevent civic engagement. Moreover, the nationwide falloff
                 in joining and trusting is perfectly mirrored among full-time workers, among
                 part-time workers, and among those outside the paid labor force. So if people are
                 dropping out of community life, long hours do not seem to be the reason.

                 If time pressure is not the culprit, how about financial pressures? It is true that
                 people with lower incomes and those who feel financially strapped are somewhat
                 less engaged in community life and somewhat less trusting than those who are better
                 off, even holding education constant. On the other hand, the downtrends in social
                 trust and civic engagement are visible among people of all incomes, with no sign
                 whatever that they are concentrated among those who have borne the brunt of the
                 economic distress of the last two decades. Quite the contrary, the declines in
                 engagement and trust are actually somewhat greater among the more affluent
                 segments of the American public than among the poor and middle-income
                 wage-earners. Moreover, personal financial satisfaction is wholly uncorrelated with
                 civic engagement and social trust. In short, neither objective nor subjective economic
                 well-being has inoculated Americans against the virus of civic disengagement; if
                 anything, affluence has slightly exacerbated the problem. Poverty and economic
                 inequality are dreadful, growing problems for America, but they are not the villains of
                 this piece.
 
 

                 THE CHANGING ROLE OF WOMEN

                 Most of our mothers were housewives, and most of them invested heavily in social
                 capital formation--a jargony way of referring to untold unpaid hours in church
                 suppers, PTA meetings, neighborhood coffee klatches, and visits to friends and
                 relatives. The movement of women out of the home and into the paid labor force is
                 probably the most portentous social change of the last half century. However
                 welcome and overdue the feminist revolution may be, it is hard to believe that it has
                 had no impact on social connectedness. Could this be the primary reason for the
                 decline of social capital over the last generation?

                 Some patterns in the survey evidence seem to support this claim. All things
                 considered, women belong to somewhat fewer voluntary associations than men do.
                 On the other hand, time-budget studies suggest that women spend more time on
                 those groups and more time in informal social connecting than men. Although the
                 absolute declines in joining and trusting are approximately equivalent among men and
                 women, the relative declines are somewhat greater among women. Controlling for
                 education, memberships among men have declined at a rate of about 10-15 percent
                 a decade, compared to about 20-25 percent a decade for women. The time-budget
                 data, too, strongly suggest that the decline in organizational involvement in recent
                 years is concentrated among women. These sorts of facts, coupled with the obvious
                 transformation in the professional role of women over this same period, led me in
                 previous work to suppose that the emergence of two-career families might be the
                 most important single factor in the erosion of social capital.

                 As we saw earlier, however, work status itself seems to have little net impact on
                 group membership or on trust. Housewives belong to different types of groups than
                 do working women (more PTAs, for example, and fewer professional associations),
                 but in the aggregate working women are actually members of slightly more voluntary
                 associations (though housewives, according to Robinson and Godbey, spend more
                 time on them). Moreover, the overall declines in civic engagement are somewhat
                 greater among housewives than among employed women. Comparison of
                 time-budget data between 1965 and 1985 seems to show that employed women as
                 a group are actually spending more time on organizations than before, while
                 housewives are spending less. This same study suggests that the major decline in
                 informal socializing since 1965 has also been concentrated among housewives. The
                 central fact, of course, is that the overall trends are down for all categories of
                 women (and for men, too, even bachelors), but the figures suggest that women who
                 work full-time actually may have been more resistant to the slump than those who do
                 not.

                 Thus, although women appear to have borne a disproportionate share of the decline
                 in civic engagement over the last two decades, it is not easy to find any micro-level
                 data that tie that fact directly to their entry into the labor force. Of course, women
                 who have chosen to enter the workforce doubtless differ in many respects from
                 women who have chosen to stay home. Perhaps one reason that community
                 involvement appears to be rising among working women and declining among
                 housewives is that precisely the sort of women who, in an earlier era, were most
                 involved with their communities have been disproportionately likely to enter the
                 workforce, thus lowering the average level of civic engagement among the remaining
                 homemakers and raising the average among women in the workplace.

                 No doubt the movement of women into the workplace over the last generation has
                 changed the types of organizations to which they belong. Contrary to my own
                 earlier speculations, however, I can find little evidence to support the hypothesis that
                 this movement has played a major role in the net reduction of social connectedness
                 and civic engagement. On the other hand, I have no clear alternative explanation for
                 the fact that the relative declines are greater among women, both those who work
                 outside the home and those who don't, than among men. Since this evidence is at
                 best circumstantial, perhaps the best interim judgment here is the famous Scots
                 verdict: not proven.
 
 

                 MARRIAGE AND FAMILY

                 Another widely discussed social trend that more or less coincides with the downturn
                 in civic engagement is the breakdown of the traditional family unit--mom, dad, and
                 the kids. Since the family itself is, by some accounts, a key form of social capital,
                 perhaps its eclipse is part of the explanation for the reduction in joining and trusting
                 in the wider community. What does the evidence show?

                 First of all, evidence of the loosening of family bonds is unequivocal. In addition to
                 the century-long increase in divorce rates (which accelerated from the mid-1960s to
                 the mid-1970s and then leveled off), and the more recent increase in single-parent
                 families, the incidence of one-person households has more than doubled since 1950,
                 in part because of the rising number of widows living alone. The net effect of all
                 these changes, as reflected in the General Social Survey, is that the proportion of all
                 American adults currently unmarried climbed from 28 percent in 1974 to 48 percent
                 in 1994.

                 Second, married men and women do rank somewhat higher on both our measures
                 of social capital. That is, controlling for education, age, race, and so on, single
                 people--both men and women, divorced, separated, and never married--are
                 significantly less trusting and less engaged civicly than married people. (Multivariate
                 analysis hints that one major reason why divorce lowers connectedness is that it
                 lowers family income, which in turn reduces civic engagement.) Roughly speaking,
                 married men and women are about a third more trusting and belong to about 15-25
                 percent more groups than comparable single men and women. (Widows and
                 widowers are more like married people than single people in this comparison.)

                 In short, successful marriage, especially if the family includes children, is statistically
                 associated with greater social trust and civic engagement. Thus, some part of the
                 decline in both trust and membership is tied to the decline in marriage. To be sure,
                 the direction of causality behind this correlation may be complicated, since it is
                 conceivable that loners and paranoids are harder to live with. If so, divorce may in
                 some degree be the consequence, not the cause, of lower social capital. Probably
                 the most reasonable summary of these arrays of data, however, is that the decline in
                 successful marriage is a significant, though modest part of the reason for declining
                 trust and lower group membership. On the other hand, changes in family structure
                 cannot be a major part of our story, since the overall declines in joining and trusting
                 are substantial even among the happily married. My own verdict (based in part on
                 additional evidence to be introduced later) is that the disintegration of marriage is
                 probably an accessory to the crime, but not the major villain of the piece.
 
 

                 THE RISE OF THE WELFARE STATE

                 Circumstantial evidence, particularly the timing of the downturn in social
                 connectedness, has suggested to some observers that an important cause--perhaps
                 even the cause--is big government and the growth of the welfare state. By
                 "crowding out" private initiative, it is argued, state intervention has subverted civil
                 society.

                 Some government policies have almost certainly had the effect of destroying social
                 capital. For example, the so-called "slum clearance" policies of the 1950s and 1960s
                 replaced physical capital, but destroyed social capital, by disrupting existing
                 community ties. It is also conceivable that certain social expenditures and tax policies
                 may have created disincentives for civic-minded philanthropy. On the other hand, it
                 is much harder to see which government policies might be responsible for the decline
                 in bowling leagues and literary clubs. Some community institutions sponsored,
                 organized, or subsidized by government, such as National Service, agricultural
                 extension programs, and Head Start, may enhance trust and social capital. Which
                 effect prevails needs to be resolved with evidence, not ideology.

                 One empirical approach to this issue is to examine differences in civic engagement
                 and public policy across different political jurisdictions to see whether enlarged
                 government leads to shriveled social capital. Among the U.S. states, however,
                 differences in social capital appear essentially uncorrelated with various measures of
                 welfare spending or government size. Citizens in free-spending states are no less
                 trusting or engaged than citizens in frugal ones.

                 Cross-national comparison can also shed light on this question. Among nineteen
                 member countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development
                 (OECD) for which data on social trust and group membership are available from the
                 1990-1991 World Values Survey, these indicators of social capital are, if anything,
                 positively correlated with the size of the state. This simple bivariate analysis, of
                 course, cannot tell us whether social connectedness encourages welfare spending,
                 whether the welfare state fosters civic engagement, or whether both are the result of
                 some other unmeasured factor(s). Even this simple finding, however, is not easily
                 reconciled with the notion that big government undermines social capital.

                 GENERATIONAL EFFECTS

                 Our efforts thus far to identify the major sources of civic disengagement have been
                 singularly unfruitful. In all our statistical analyses, however, one factor, second only
                 to education, stands out as a predictor of all forms of civic engagement and trust.
                 That factor is age. Older people belong to more organizations than young people,
                 and they are less misanthropic. Older Americans also vote more often and read
                 newspapers more frequently, two other forms of civic engagement closely correlated
                 with joining and trusting.

                 "Civic Engagement by Age" shows the basic pattern. Civic involvement appears to
                 rise more or less steadily from early adulthood toward a plateau in middle age, from
                 which it declines only late in life. This humpback pattern seems naturally to represent
                 the arc of life's engagements. That, at least, was how I first interpreted the data. But
                 that would be a fundamental misreading of the most important clue in our whole
                 whodunit.

                 Evidence from the General Social Survey enables us to follow individual cohorts as
                 they age. If the rising lines in the figure indeed represent deepening civic engagement
                 with age, we should be able to track this same deepening engagement as we follow,
                 for example, the first of the baby boomers, born in 1947, as they aged from 25 in
                 1972 (the first year of the GSS) to 47 in 1994 (the latest year available). Startlingly,
                 however, such an analysis, repeated for successive birth cohorts, produces virtually
                 no evidence of such life cycle changes in civic engagement. In fact, as various
                 generations moved through the period between 1972 and 1994, their levels of trust
                 and membership more often fell than rose, reflecting a more or less simultaneous
                 decline in civic engagement among young and old alike, particularly during the
                 second half of the 1980s. But that downtrend obviously cannot explain why,
                 throughout the period, older Americans were always more trusting and engaged. In
                 fact, the only reliable life cycle effect visible in these data is a withdrawal from civic
                 engagement very late in life, as we move through our eighties.

                 The central paradox posed by these patterns is this: Older people are consistently
                 more engaged and trusting than younger people, yet we do not become more
                 engaged and trusting as we age. What's going on here?

                 Time and age are notoriously ambiguous in their effects on social behavior. Social
                 scientists have learned to distinguish three contrasting phenomena:

                 Life cycle effects represent differences attributable to stage of life. In this case
                 individuals change as they age, but since the effects of aging are, in the aggregate,
                 neatly balanced by the "demographic metabolism" of births and deaths, life cycle
                 effects produce no aggregate change. Everyone's close-focus eyesight worsens as
                 we age, but the aggregate demand for reading glasses changes little.

                 Period effects affect all people who live through a given era, regardless of their age.
                 Period effects can produce both individual and aggregate change, often quickly and
                 enduringly, without any age-related differences. The sharp drop in trust in
                 government between 1965 and 1975, for example, was almost entirely this sort of
                 period effect, as Americans of all ages changed their minds about their leaders'
                 trustworthiness. Similarly, as just noted, a modest portion of the decline in social
                 capital during the 1980s appears to be a period effect.

                 Generational effects affect all people born at the same time. Like life cycle effects
                 (and unlike typical period effects), generational effects show up as disparities among
                 age groups at a single point in time, but like period effects (and unlike life cycle
                 effects) generational effects produce real social change, as successive generations,
                 enduringly "imprinted" with divergent outlooks, enter and leave the population. In
                 pure generational effects, no individual ever changes, but society does.

                 Returning to our conundrum, how could older people today be more engaged and
                 trusting, if they did not become more engaged and trusting as they aged? The key to
                 this paradox, as David Butler and Donald Stokes observed in another context, is to
                 ask, not how old people are, but when they were young. The figure "Social
                 Capital and Civic Engagement by Generation," addresses this reformulated question,
                 displaying various measures of civic engagement according to the respondents' year
                 of birth.

                 By any standard, these intergenerational differences are extraordinary. Compare, for
                 example, the generation born in the early 1920s with the generation of their
                 grandchildren born in the late 1960s. Controlling for educational disparities,
                 members of the generation born in the 1920s belong to almost twice as many civic
                 associations as those born in the late 1960s (roughly 1.9 memberships per capita,
                 compared to roughly 1.1 memberships per capita). The grandparents are more than
                 twice as likely to trust other people (50-60 percent compared with 25 percent for
                 the grandchildren). They vote at nearly double the rate of the most recent cohorts
                 (roughly 75 percent compared with 40-45 percent), and they read newspapers
                 almost three times as often (70-80 percent read a paper daily compared with 25-30
                 percent). And bear in mind that we have found no evidence that the youngest
                 generation will come to match their grandparents' higher levels of civic engagement
                 as they grow older.

                 Thus, read not as life cycle effects, but rather as generational effects, the age-related
                 patterns in our data suggest a radically different interpretation of our basic puzzle.
                 Deciphered with this key, the figure on page 43 depicts a long "civic" generation,
                 born roughly between 1910 and 1940, a broad group of people substantially more
                 engaged in community affairs and substantially more trusting than those younger than
                 they. (Members of the 1910-1940 generation also seem more civic than their elders,
                 at least to judge by the outlooks of relatively few men and women born in the late
                 nineteenth century who appeared in our samples.) The culminating point of this civic
                 generation is the cohort born in 1925-1930, who attended grade school during the
                 Great Depression, spent World War II in high school (or on the battlefield), first
                 voted in 1948 or 1952, set up housekeeping in the 1950s, and watched their first
                 television when they were in their late twenties. Since national surveying began, this
                 cohort has been exceptionally civic: voting more, joining more, reading newspapers
                 more, trusting more. As the distinguished sociologist Charles Tilly (born in 1928)
                 said in commenting on an early version of this essay, "We are the last suckers."

                 In short, the most parsimonious interpretation of the age-related differences in civic
                 engagement is that they represent a powerful reduction in civic engagement among
                 Americans who came of age in the decades after World War II, as well as some
                 modest additional disengagement that affected all cohorts during the 1980s. These
                 patterns hint that being raised after World War II was a quite different experience
                 from being raised before that watershed. It is as though the postwar generations
                 were exposed to some mysterious X-ray that permanently and increasingly rendered
                 them less likely to connect with the community. Whatever that force might have
                 been, it--rather than anything that happened during the 1970s and 1980s--accounts
                 for most of the civic disengagement that lies at the core of our mystery.

                 But if this reinterpretation of our puzzle is correct, why did it take so long for the
                 effects of that mysterious X-ray to become manifest? If the underlying causes of
                 civic disengagement can be traced to the 1940s and 1950s, why did the effects
                 become conspicuous in PTA meetings and Masonic lodges, in the volunteer lists of
                 the Red Cross and the Boy Scouts, and in polling stations and church pews and
                 bowling alleys across the land only during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s?

                 The visible effects of this generational disengagement were delayed by two important
                 factors. First, the postwar boom in college enrollments raised levels of civic
                 engagement, offsetting the generational trends. As Warren E. Miller and J. Merrill
                 Shanks observe in their as yet unpublished book, The American Voter
                 Reconsidered, the postwar expansion of educational opportunities "forestalled a
                 cataclysmic drop" in voting turnout, and it had a similar delaying effect on civic
                 disengagement more generally.

                 In short, the very decades that have seen a national deterioration in social capital are
                 the same decades during which the numerical dominance of a trusting and civic
                 generation has been replaced by the dominion of "post-civic" cohorts. Moreover,
                 although the long civic generation has enjoyed unprecedented life expectancy,
                 allowing its members to contribute more than their share to American social capital
                 in recent decades, they are now passing from the scene. Even the youngest members
                 of that generation will reach retirement age within the next few years. Thus, a
                 generational analysis leads almost inevitably to the conclusion that the national slump
                 in trust and engagement is likely to continue, regardless of whether the more modest
                 "period effect" depression of the 1980s continues.

                 OUR PRIME SUSPECT

                 To say that civic disengagement in contemporary America is in large measure
                 generational merely reformulates our central puzzle. We now know that much of the
                 cause of our lonely bowling probably dates to the 1940s and 1950s, rather than to
                 the 1960s and 1970s. What could have been the mysterious anticivic "X-ray" that
                 affected Americans who came of age after World War II and whose effects
                 progressively deepened at least into the 1970s?

                 Our new formulation of the puzzle opens the possibility that the zeitgeist of national
                 unity, patriotism, and shared sacrifice that culminated in 1945 might have reinforced
                 civic-mindedness. On the other hand, it is hard to assign any consistent role to the
                 Cold War and the Bomb, since the anticivic trend appears to have deepened
                 steadily from the 1940s to the 1970s, in no obvious harmony with the rhythms of
                 world affairs. Nor is it easy to construct an interpretation of the data on generational
                 differences in which the cultural vicissitudes of the sixties could play a significant role.
                 Neither can economic adversity or affluence easily be tied to the generational decline
                 in civic engagement, since the slump seems to have affected in equal measure those
                 who came of age in the placid fifties, the booming sixties, and the busted seventies.

                 I have discovered only one prominent suspect against whom circumstantial evidence
                 can be mounted, and in this case, it turns out, some directly incriminating evidence
                 has also turned up. This is not the occasion to lay out the full case for the
                 prosecution, nor to review rebuttal evidence for the defense, but I want to present
                 evidence that justifies indictment.

                 The culprit is television.

                 First, the timing fits. The long civic generation was the last cohort of Americans to
                 grow up without television, for television flashed into American society like lightning
                 in the 1950s. In 1950 barely 10 percent of American homes had television sets, but
                 by 1959, 90 percent did, probably the fastest diffusion of a major technological
                 innovation ever recorded. The reverberations from this lightning bolt continued for
                 decades, as viewing hours grew by 17-20 percent during the 1960s and by an
                 additional 7-8 percent during the 1970s. In the early years, TV watching was
                 concentrated among the less educated sectors of the population, but during the
                 1970s the viewing time of the more educated sectors of the population began to
                 converge upward. Television viewing increases with age, particularly upon
                 retirement, but each generation since the introduction of television has begun its life
                 cycle at a higher starting point. By 1995 viewing per TV household was more than
                 50 percent higher than it had been in the 1950s.

                 Most studies estimate that the average American now watches roughly four hours
                 per day (excluding periods in which television is merely playing in the background).
                 Even a more conservative estimate of three hours means that television absorbs 40
                 percent of the average American's free time, an increase of about one-third since
                 1965. Moreover, multiple sets have proliferated: By the late 1980s three-quarters of
                 all U.S. homes had more than one set, and these numbers too are rising steadily,
                 allowing ever more private viewing. Robinson and Godbey are surely right to
                 conclude that "television is the 800-pound gorilla of leisure time." This massive
                 change in the way Americans spend their days and nights occurred precisely during
                 the years of generational civic disengagement.

                 Evidence of a link between the arrival of television and the erosion of social
                 connections is, however, not merely circumstantial. The links between civic
                 engagement and television viewing can be instructively compared with the links
                 between civic engagement and newspaper reading. The basic contrast is
                 straightforward: Newspaper reading is associated with high social capital, TV
                 viewing with low social capital.

                 Controlling for education, income, age, race, place of residence, work status, and
                 gender, TV viewing is strongly and negatively related to social trust and group
                 membership, whereas the same correlations with newspaper reading are positive.
                 Within every educational category, heavy readers are avid joiners, whereas heavy
                 viewers are more likely to be loners. In fact, more detailed analysis suggests that
                 heavy TV watching is one important reason why less educated people are less
                 engaged in the life of their communities. Controlling for differential TV exposure
                 significantly reduces the correlation between education and engagement.

                 Viewing and reading are themselves uncorrelated--some people do lots of both,
                 some do little of either--but "pure readers" (that is, people who watch less TV than
                 average and read more newspapers than average) belong to 76 percent more civic
                 organizations than "pure viewers" (controlling for education, as always). Precisely the
                 same pattern applies to other indicators of civic engagement, including social trust
                 and voting turnout. "Pure readers," for example, are 55 percent more trusting than
                 "pure viewers."

                 In other words, each hour spent viewing television is associated with less social trust
                 and less group membership, while each hour reading a newspaper is associated with
                 more. An increase in television viewing of the magnitude that the U.S. has
                 experienced in the last four decades might directly account for as much as
                 one-quarter to one- half of the total drop in social capital, even without taking into
                 account, for example, the indirect effects of television viewing on newspaper
                 readership or the cumulative effects of lifetime viewing hours. Newspaper circulation
                 (per household) has dropped by more than half since its peak in 1947. To be sure, it
                 is not clear which way the tie between newspaper reading and civic involvement
                 works, since disengagement might itself dampen one's interest in community news.
                 But the two trends are clearly linked.  
 

                 HOW MIGHT TV DESTROY SOCIAL CAPITAL?

                 Time displacement. Even though there are only 24 hours in everyone's day, most
                 forms of social and media participation are positively correlated. People who listen
                 to lots of classical music are more likely, not less likely, than others to attend Cubs
                 games. Television is the principal exception to this generalization--the only leisure
                 activity that seems to inhibit participation outside the home. TV watching comes at
                 the expense of nearly every social activity outside the home, especially social
                 gatherings and informal conversations. TV viewers are homebodies.

                 Most studies that report a negative correlation between television watching and
                 community involvement (see figure "The TV Connection") are ambiguous with
                 respect to causality, because they merely compare different individuals at a single
                 time. However, one important quasi-experimental study of the introduction of
                 television in three Canadian towns found the same pattern at the aggregate level
                 across time. A major effect of television's arrival was the reduction in participation in
                 social, recreational, and community activities among people of all ages. In short,
                 television privatizes our leisure time.

                 Effects on the outlooks of viewers. An impressive body of literature suggests that
                 heavy watchers of TV are unusually skeptical about the benevolence of other
                 people--overestimating crime rates, for example. This body of literature has
                 generated much debate about the underlying causal patterns, with skeptics
                 suggesting that misanthropy may foster couch-potato behavior rather than the
                 reverse. While awaiting better experimental evidence, however, a reasonable interim
                 judgment is that heavy television watching may well increase pessimism about human
                 nature. Perhaps too, as social critics have long argued, both the medium and the
                 message have more basic effects on our ways of interacting with the world and with
                 one another. Television may induce passivity, as Neil Postman has claimed.

                 Effects on children. TV consumes an extraordinary part of children's lives, about
                 40 hours per week on average. Viewing is especially high among pre-adolescents,
                 but it remains high among younger adolescents: Time-budget studies suggest that
                 among youngsters aged 9 to 14 television consumes as much time as all other
                 discretionary activities combined, including playing, hobbies, clubs, outdoor
                 activities, informal visiting, and just hanging out. The effects of television on
                 childhood socialization have, of course, been hotly debated for more than three
                 decades. The most reasonable conclusion from a welter of sometimes conflicting
                 results appears to be that heavy television watching probably increases
                 aggressiveness (although perhaps not actual violence), that it probably reduces
                 school achievement, and that it is statistically associated with "psychosocial
                 malfunctioning," although how much of this effect is self-selection and how much
                 causal remains much debated. The evidence is, as I have said, not yet enough to
                 convict, but the defense has a lot of explaining to do.

                 More than two decades ago, just as the first signs of disengagement were beginning
                 to appear in American politics, the political scientist Ithiel de Sola Pool observed
                 that the central issue would be--it was then too soon to judge, as he rightly
                 noted--whether the development represented a temporary change in the weather or
                 a more enduring change in the climate. It now appears that much of the change
                 whose initial signs he spotted did in fact reflect a climatic shift.

                 Moreover, just as the erosion of the ozone layer was detected only many years after
                 the proliferation of the chlorofluorocarbons that caused it, so too the erosion of
                 America's social capital became visible only several decades after the underlying
                 process had begun. Like Minerva's owl that flies at dusk, we come to appreciate
                 how important the long civic generation has been to American community life just as
                 its members are retiring. Unless America experiences a dramatic upward boost in
                 civic engagement (a favorable "period effect") in the next few years, Americans in
                 2010 will join, trust, and vote even less than we do today.

                 In an astonishingly prescient book, Technologies without Borders, published in
                 1991 after his death, Pool concluded that the electronic revolution in
                 communications technology was the first major technological advance in centuries
                 that would have a profoundly decentralizing and fragmenting effect on society and
                 culture. He hoped that the result might be "community without contiguity." As a
                 classic liberal, he welcomed the benefits of technological change for individual
                 freedom, and in part, I share that enthusiasm. Those of us who bemoan the decline
                 of community in contemporary America need to be sensitive to the liberating gains
                 achieved during the same decades. We need to avoid an uncritical nostalgia for the
                 fifties. On the other hand, some of the same freedom-friendly technologies whose
                 rise Pool predicted may indeed be undermining our connections with one another
                 and with our communities. Pool defended what he called "soft technological
                 determinism" because he recognized that social values cans condition the effects of
                 technology. This perspective invites us not merely to consider how technology is
                 privatizing our lives--if, as it seems to me, it is--but to ask whether we like the result,
                 and if not, what we might do about it. Those are questions we should, of course, be
                 asking together, not alone.