How is public opinion expressed & measured and what role does it play in politics? Given the increasingly technical nature of politics, how much of a role can the public realistically play in decision-making?
A.
framers had conflicting views of role of public in decision-making
1. James Madison
a.
public
will is necessary, but best, filtered through representatives
b.
election
of professional class (elite) to make decisions, in the best interests
of public
1. better informed
2. aware of trade-offs
3. not easily swayed by emotions
c.assumption
that mass public does not have time or capability of
understanding complexities of wise public policy
d.
elite
democracy model
1. public role
mainly
as spectators (passive)
2. affirm decisions made by
professional
policymakers
2. Jefferson
a. absolute
need
for popular will to serve as check on legislators and political
officials
b.strong need
for
citizen involvement at all levels
c. an engaged
public
could understand, debate issues, & express opinions directly
d.
participatory
democracy
1.
not
democratic if not reflection of widespread participation
2.
basis
of legitimacy of decisions
e. ideally, active,
engaged citizen role
What
is
possible in 2009, given nature & quality of public opinion?
A.
(one view) Elite democracy only realistic model
1. much public opinion uninformed
a.
fragmented, contradictory,
emotional
b. reflection
of form of info delivery--media
c.
reflection of lack
of engagement
2. politicians
often impatient/distrustful of constituents
a.
unwilling to understand
trade-offs
b.
no
knowledge of issues,
process
c.
fear of
being judged by
"one issue" by voters
1.
unwillingness to
speak beyond platitudes
2.
distrust of
public reaction to policy
a.
swayed by irrelevant symbolism
b.
short-term interests (election cycle) come before long-term goals
3. issues increasingly technocratic and
complicated
a.
best hope is professional political class to
make wise decisions
b.
public not engaged enough to rely upon
.
c. public has "rational ignorance"
1.
if
not directly affecting them, no attention paid
2.
analogy
of citizens as consumers
a. fixed preferences, competing interests
b. organize to compete in political marketplace
3.
attenuated public presence is
permanent
B.
(other view) participatory democracy view
1.
serious
crisis w/ workings of
political system
2.
disengagement
means no democracy
possible
3.
breakdown of "public/civic
identity" of citizens
a. consequences
beyond lack of input into decisions
b. destruction
of civic culture
1.
politics defined as "talk" & "deliberation"
2.
citizen as "stakeholder" active
3.
active role makes citizens producer of politics, not just consumer
4. lack
of public attention reflects alienation
a.
citizenry
disconnected, distrustful
of government
1. left out, inefficacious
2. perception
that politics is irrelevant, corrupt
a. govt. supports "special interests" not public
b. low opinion of politicians
b.failure
of civic function of institutions
1.
media-not educating
citizens
2.
campaigns-propaganda
not national dialogues on issues
3.
diminishing of civil
society
Elite
vs participatory models- also measure public opinion differently
a. polling is often only expression of public opinion
1.private
firms,
academic organizations
2.
news
outlets
3.show
reactions
from the public on policies and politicians
a. constantly
measured-
source of political capital
b. used to determine
image,
support for initiatives
1.politicians
lead
by following polls
c. need to be liked by public,
explains
"image management" and campaign tactics
1.reflection of personalization of politics
2. lack of awareness of policy options (low attention)
3. political figures
who talk about policy considered 'boring', lose out to more colorful
politicians
4. can be useful rough measure of
public
reactions if a reflection, not manipulation
a.
valid
results if statistical requirements met
1. random,
representative
sample ex
2 unbiased instrument
b.
good at establishing trends over time gallop
5. Also,
inaccuracies
very possible in most polls
a.registered voters viewed as most accurate predictors
1. those likeliest to vote
2. high turnout elections, difficult to know
b. exit
polls--most accurate
1.actual voters
2. assumption that they are not lying
c. "bandwagon" effect
1. many undecided will join majority
2. reporting public opinion can
change
it.
d. Serious problems with some forms of polling
(manipulation rather than reflection)
1. push
polling"
a. illegal, part of stealth campaigns
b. deliberate attempt to manipulate voters
ex
ex.
"Would
you vote for this candidate if you heard he was arrested for drunk
driving?"
ex
2.
tracking polls
a. immediate reaction after a speech, debate
b. reflection of shortened news cycle,
accelerated
need for "new" news
c. assumption is view is more accurate, if
no
discussion w/ other ppl
d. dangers in this assumption
1.
Yankelovitch
article: instant polls not good reflection of public
opinion
2.
ideally,
seven stages of formation of public opinion
a.
changeable
public opinion transforms into settled public judgement
1. raw unformed emotional reactions (no urgency)
2. greater urgency to
solve
issue (higher priority)
3. looking for
solution,
using choices offered, no commitment
4. wishful
thinking
"having it all"
5. weighing
choices
carefully, greater information sought
6. taking stand
intellectually-clarifying
fuzzy thinking
7. making
responsible
judgement morally, emotionally
a. deal w/
personal
ambiguities, trade-offs
b. personal
resolution
& commitment
3. tracking polls capture only first stage
a. opinion shifts easily & is
often
uninformed
b. very little commitment required from
voters
c. still "private" opinion, not public
opinion
4. no respect given to process of reaching mature public
judgment
a. immediacy and lack of context of
media
coverage makes it difficult to reach stage7
1. much of public stuck at early
stages of
opinion formation
2.
implications
a. public opinion unstable,
easy
to manipulate
b. political leaders
underestimate
& distrust public input (like children)
1. often smooth
over
trade-offs to public
2. make
unrealistic
promises, wait for public to forget
3. keep messages
simplistic
c. difficult to have consensus on policy options
d.
most
of public unaware of trade-offs involved in choices
1. eventually,
let-down &
feeling
distrust of leaders
2. continues reinforcing spiral of alienation
e. with shrinking civil society
(public domain) has shrunk
a. no possibility of "public" opinion without public
b. no venue for forming
deeply
rooted public judgement
c.
public talk is what defines public will
1.
with practice,
public
deliberation becomes more careful, reasoned
2. requires
citizen
investment of time, trust in potential for public input
a. Model of "deliberative" democracy
, potential solution
1. aim: public
capable of reasoned choices w/ adequate information about options
a. combines gathering public opinion w/ public education
b. recognizes that public opinion can only be formed through public
dialogue
1. "private" preferences vs. "public" will
2. citizens viewed as consumers, w/ ranking preferences
3. citizens as deliberators, brought together through dialogue to reach
public
consensus ppls
2. Fishkin's polls-
randomly chosen sample of citizens dd
a. "baseline" polling
b. weekend seminars by policy experts, potential to ask questions,
debate
w/ each other dd
c. re-polled after weekend
d. dramatic changes in public opinion
b.
analogy of jury
1.
information provided, debate
process allows public consensus to develop
2.
participants build on each
other's thoughts
3.
better
model for engaged
public presence in politics
a. better awareness
of trade-offs involved, costs
b. more commitment
to policy
c. less ability
to manipulate public by political figures
4. way of restoring
community, public again
Contrasting views of
citizen
within each
system: "share-holder vs. stakeholder" model
a. shareholder:
1.market-based
political system
a.
fixed
preferences, ordered
with options
b.
narrow
interest groups
who compete for resources
c.
uninvolvement not significant
d.
vote on
basis of group
membership
B.
stakeholder
1. citizen obligation
to deliberative
democracy
a.
private interests
transformed into public opinion
b.
not consensus, but
awareness of complexity of issue, trade-offs involved
c.
possibility of maturing
to more developed sense of public understanding
2.ex.
health care revamping in 1992
a. Hillary
Clinton
--"top-down' approach
to comprehensive reform
1.
assembled experts
for 'health summit"
2.
polls identified
health care--most important concern for americans
b. result
was
failure
1.
all-out lobbying
by insurance companies
2.
no clear public
understanding
3.
public disillusionment
w/ ability of govt to solve problems
c. only
piece-meal,incremental, bipartisan
reforms since then
3. stakeholders
model-Monitoring of Great Lakes
a.
multiple jurisdictions,
national, state, tribal
b.
pollution problems in 1970's
c.
formed
international joint
commission link
1. advisory
role--but lots of weight
2., "bottoms
up" approach
4.Conservation
Congresses link
5. DNR-- "Deer 2000
project
a. public cooperation
better than enforcement dnr
6. Iraq, 'governing councils' -Patraeus approach
iraq
7.
internet-based public discussions local
a.
virtual community
debate, one alternative on-line
8.problems:
a.
civility and conversational
norms necessary
b.domination within the discussion
by some over others
1.
technocracy over
emotion
2. different criteria used
c.
time
difficulties
1. significant
amount of time to develop rapport, trust
a.. difficult for most to do
b. most difficult for most excluded
d.
pseudo-discussions vs. opportunity
for real public input strayvoltage
1. public
meeting, but no intention of discussing issues
stray
farmers
2. PR, only
3. communication,
one-way
9. 'shared governance' -real or manipulated